Do you believe?

Do you believe?

In Santa? In the tooth fairy? That your dad is a superhero?

Belief without concrete evidence is hard. Belief by faith is harder. I think one of the most serious questions we as humans can ask ourselves is whether or not we believe in the rodent we know as the groundhog... marmota monax, also known as a woodchuck, chuck or in some areas as the land-beaver. More precisely, do we believe that the groundhog actually emerges from his hole each year on February 2nd and is a true predictor of the amount of blasted winter (it's been tough this year, huh?) we have to endure that particular year. Personally, I have a hard time with this.

Being an American, I've been taught to believe that Punxsutawney Phil is the one and only true prognosticator of the winter months ahead. But, is he really is the one and only groundhog... the only one we should believe in? I was led to the meaning of groundhog day at an early age and for many years believed unquestionably in his power to predict. I was taught that questioning his existence, and more important, his role as predictor was wrong and that I had to believe in him by faith. As I've gotten older, the questions that have been hibernating in my mind have resurfaced with a nagging tug to my rational thought process. There are other animals that would probably be just as suited to predict winter weather. The meerkat, for example would be very good at it. I've seen meerkats standing just outside their hole scouring the landscape. They are very attentive to their surroundings and I'm sure they'd see their own shadow easily. Howler monkeys would make great predictors. They'd probably scamper up a tree and vocalize whether the see their shadow or not. And there are other groundhogs too. I am just not sure anymore that the Phil is the one true groundhog or is even the only predictor of winter.

One question that nags at me constantly about the existence of a groundhog is the shadow thing. How do we know  that the groundhog actually sees his shadow or not? He can't speak, at least in a language that humans understand, so how do we know for sure that he's predicting an early or later spring. I'm sure those who push the groundhog agenda think they know whether he's seen his shadow or not, but that makes me question whether or not it's just a tale invented by man to quench his thirst for a higher weather predictor. Do we even know that he can see? We assume that he can because he has eyes, but I'm very cautious to believe that when he emerges from the hole, he's even looking for his shadow. I have huge doubts about this. If shut in a hole in the ground for a few months, wouldn't it make sense to believe that other things are on Phil's mind at the time of his emergence including breakfast, curiosity of the idiot humans surrounding him with cameras and microphones, maybe the need to relieve his bladder with one very long pee and other bodily urges that any normal groundhog has! I just don't think that the first thing he would do is look for his own shadow.

Another nagging thought of mine - groundhogs normally live about six years in the wild and about ten years in captivity. According records, Phil has been predicting the course of winters since the winter of 1887, which would make him at least 121 years old. He has made 115 predictions that are on record, has predicted an early spring fifteen times and according to the StormFax Weather Almanac his predictions have been only been correct 39% of the time. The great science vs groundhogology debate on his existence has been going on for thousands... hundreds... okay, maybe fifty years. If Phil is the one true groundhog, two questions arise; how can predicting accurate be so low, and how can he exist for so many years. While the groundhogists tell you that's it's about faith, I can't help but agree with science and the belief that no groundhog can live more than ten to twelve years. According to folklore, "Phil is given a sip of the mysterious Groundhog Elixer, which magically lengthens his life for seven years." I simply find this too hard to accept. It think it was written by man to again satisfy his hunger for the truth. I just don't believe as some others do that it is the word (grunt, shrill or squeal) of groundhog.

We've been told that Punxsutawney Phil is the one true groundhog, but how do we ignore others faith in their groundhogs, such as Buckeye Chuck from Marion, Ohio. I had a good friend at the University of Dayton that was from Marion and I'm sure his belief system was based on Chuck, and not Phil. Of course, we never really discussed it back then as we all celebrated groundhog day in our own private ways. Other belief systems are based on Staten Island Chuck, General Beauregard Lee from Lilburn, Georgia, Wiarton Willie from Ontario and Shubenacadie Sam from Nova Scotia. I'm fairly convinced that one doesn't have to believe in Phil in order to reap the reward of winter weather knowledge. The people that believe in Sam or Chuck or the General, all believe that he is the one true groundhog. Who am I to question them.

I've been taught for years to believe in the groundhog by faith and that science is wrong about this. I've come to realize that I cannot believe in the groundhog by faith alone. I imagine that I'm not the only person to question the existence of Phil as the supreme groundhog. I'm sure there are many who have the same doubts that I do. I guess I'll accept and embrace all the differences as part of what groundhog really wants for our lives.

A quote that seems to fulfill my need to know the true meaning of the animal and the day follows... I hope you can find some peace in it as I do:

"How much wood would a woodchuck chuck

if a woodchuck could chuck wood?

A woodchuck would chuck all the wood he could

if a woodchuck could chuck wood!"